Donald Trump / Hillary Clinton

Yes, Donald Trump is going to win Kentucky and Hillary Clinton is going to win Jefferson County. Let’s say you are not happy with those two choices, fear not. There are 23 other states qualified to have their votes counted in Kentucky, according to the Secretary of State’s Office. Six partisan slates and nineteen write-in slates filed the proper paperwork in Frankfort. In addition to Trump / Pence and Clinton / Kaine, we have De La Fuente / Steinberg, Stein / Baraka, McMullin / Johnson, Johnson / Weld, as partisan choices, as well as Castle / Bradley, Clark / Knight, Cubbler / Rodriguez, Duncan / Johnson, Ellis / Smith (both of Louisville), Fox / Kushner, Hartnell / Marshall, Jackson / Hicks, Keniston / Taylor, Kotlikoff / Leamer, Maldonado / Terranova, Maturen / Munoz, Perry / Seiley, Schoenke / Mitchell, Smith / White, Stevens / Mabry (both of Kentucky), Tittle / Kacprowicz, White / Niemuth, and Zutler / Michaels. Surely one of these slates works for you.

Some background: Kentucky last voted Democratic for president in 1996. The candidate’s name was Bill Clinton. He was the incumbent president running against GOP Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas. Kentucky had also supported then-Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas in his first race in 1992 against the incumbent president, Republican George H. Bush of Texas. Since the election of 2000, Kentucky has consistently voted Republican for president by large margins. In 2000, it was 56% to 41%. The GOP carried all but 14 of Kentucky’s 120 counties, supporting George W. Bush over Al Gore. In Bush’s re-election campaign against Democrat John Kerry, the vote was 60% to 40% and the GOP carried all but 11 counties. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama by a 57% to 41% margin, carrying all but eight counties. Mitt Romney’s 2012 win by 60% to 37% over President Obama in 2012 reduced counties remaining in the Democratic column to four - Elliott (said to be the most reliably Democratic county in the nation), Fayette, Franklin, and Jefferson.

Donald Trump will carry Kentucky that is decided.

The question is, will he do better or worse than Obama’s four-county showing in 2012? One place he will probably do worse is in Jefferson County. In 2012, President Obama received almost 38,000 more votes than Mitt Romney in Louisville, receiving 55% to Romney’s 44%. Hillary Clinton is expected to receive about 58% of Louisville’s vote on November 8. The question is will she carry any counties other than Jefferson and Fayette? Franklin, home to Frankfort and state government, is in question. Elliott, in northeastern Kentucky, is also in question. While Hillary Clinton may receive a higher percentage of the vote statewide than Barack Obama did in 2012, it is possible that she will carry only two, three, or maybe four counties.