The United States Senate Race

Rand Paul / Mayor Jim Gray

United States Senator Rand Paul won his first race in 2010 in the Tea Party sweep of the country, defeating the sitting Secretary of State Trey Grayson (and several others) by a large margin, nearly 59% of the vote. He went on to defeat the sitting Democratic State Attorney General Jack Conway in the fall, with 56% of the vote. Paul then went on to support his father’s bid for president in 2012, and his own in 2016. He dropped out of the race earlier this year, but only after orchestrating a way to run for president and re-election simultaneously. He defeated two little known opponents in the GOP primary, getting 85% of the vote.

His Democratic opponent is Lexington mayor Jim Gray. Gray was first elected mayor in 2010, after serving one term on the city council as vice mayor. He was easily re-elected in 2014. Gray defeated six challengers in the Democratic Primary, receiving 58% of the vote setting up the fall election. Gray has proven to be a popular candidate throughout the Lexington media market, which covers all of Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District and parts of the 2nd, 4th, and 5th. However, once outside that area, he is not known nearly as well, and most people do not give him much of a chance against the incumbent Senator Paul. Could a state that is determined to elect Donald Trump also, on the same day, elect Jim Gray? The path to victory for Gray is very narrow, and Paul, by ignoring his opponent almost entirely, has made no mistakes whatsoever in this race.

He may make a run against Bevin in 2019 but that would be a mistake. Bevin will dominate in a re-election and then (if not earlier) is presidential material. You read it here first. Grey may be best off going after the 6th congressional seat.

This race could be closer than expected. Also, it represents the beginnings of Gray’s long-term career in KY politics. Paul will almost certainly run for president again after his win. Gray, having learned a lot, will eyeball the next choice spot. He may make a run against Bevin in 2019 but that would be a mistake. Bevin will dominate in a re-election and then (if not earlier) is presidential material. You read it here first. Gray may be best off going after the 6th congressional seat.

Bisig Pick: Rand Paul

State Congressional Races Rundown

Sam Gaskins / James Comer

1st CD – Congressman Ed Whitfield, first elected in 1994, resigned in September and the office is currently vacant. First District voters will actually have two elections on Election Day, one vote for who will serve out the remainder of the term, essentially the months of November and December, and the other for the next term, from 2017-2018. The candidates are the same – Sam Gaskins of Hopkinsville, the Democrat, and James “Jamie” Comer of Tompkinsville, the Republican. The district is strongly Republican, as Comer, the former Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner, faces Gaskins, a farmer and retired Iraq War veteran. Terry McIntosh of Paducah has also qualified as a write-in candidate. The district covers southern and Southwestern Kentucky, including Paducah, Henderson, Jamestown, and Springfield.

Comer has been running for over 3 years now and must be exhausted. He is finally rewarded.

Bisig Pick: Comer

Brett Guthrie

2nd CD – Incumbent Republican Congressman Brett Guthrie, first elected in 2008, is unopposed for re-election. The district is strongly Republican and covers Southcentral Kentucky, including Bowling Green, Owensboro, Elizabethtown, and Hodgenville.

Bisig Pick: Brett Guthrie

John Yarmuth / Harold Bratcher

3rd CD – Democratic incumbent, John Yarmuth, of Harrods Creek, first elected in 2006, is opposed by Republican Harold Bratcher, of Louisville, and write-in candidate Everett Corley, also of Louisville, who lost to Bratcher in the GOP Primary. The district is largely Democratic and includes most of Jefferson County.

Both Corley and Bratcher have worked hard this race. Yarmuth has “dug in” and will keep this seat indefinitely. That said, congress may begin to wear on Yarmuth and it’s hard to say how long he will serve. He is a very popular leader.

Bisig Pick: John Yarmuth

Thomas Massie / Calvin Sidle

4th CD – GOP (but strongly Libertarian) incumbent Thomas Massie of Garrison, first elected in 2012, is opposed by Democrat Calvin Sidle of Highland Heights. Sidle works for an energy supplier in Ohio. This is a Republican district. The district is a sprawling area along the Ohio River beginning in eastern Jefferson County, and then running northward through the Cincinnati suburbs in Kentucky, then eastward to northern Boyd County at Ashland.

Thomas Massie

Bisig Pick: Massie is young and unorthodox.

Hal Rogers

5th CD – GOP Congressman Harold “Hal” Rogers of Somerset is the dean of the Kentucky congressional delegation, serving since 1981. He is unopposed for re-election is this moderately Republican district. The district is largely in eastern Kentucky and includes Somerset, Middlesboro, Pikeville, Morehead, and Paintsville.

Hal Rogers has reached the pinnacle and was republican before being republican in KY was “cool.” Bedrock candidate.

Bisig Pick: Hal Rogers

Andy Barr / Nancy Jo Kemper

6th CD – GOP Congressman Andy Barr of Lexington was first elected in 2012, defeating Ben Chandler, to whom he had lost in 2010. He easily held the seat in 2014. His Democratic opposition is Nancy Jo Kemper, a graduate of Transylvania University and the Yale School of Divinity. She is a former pastor and former Executive Director of the Kentucky Council of Churches. The race is worth watching to see if Mayor Jim Gray’s coattails in the Senate race extend to the congressional district race. The central Kentucky district includes Lexington and the surrounding counties.

In spite of her divinity training, Kemper is big time left.

Bisig Pick: Hal Rogers